The Class of 2014: The Companion White Paper to the Class of 2032
By Kari M. Arfstrom, Ph.D.
First published in August, 2014 with periodic updates
Students who marched to Edwin Elgar’s “Pomp and Circumstance” this past spring were more than likely born in 1997 and have already lived through two recessions (the dot.com, Y2K, 9/11 recession of 2000-2001 and the Great Recession of 2007-09). They've been labeled as the tail end of “the Millennials.” The class of 2014 are the original “Digital Natives,” not “Digital Immigrants” as the students before them, but not quite “Born Digital.” This group of students were more than likely born to parents of the “Forgotten or Generation X” and since no one paid attention to that birth group (those born between 1966 and 1976), they dang well decided to pay attention to their children, hence the term “helicopter parents” was coined.
To adequately prepare for a graduating high school class, such as that of 2014, school leaders can take the lessons from this White Paper as they prepare for the next cohort of students starting with the current birth year. This short paper draws attention to the make up of an “average” cohort of students made up of birth rates and migration (legal, undocumented and transient) at the national level. There are vast differences in what constitutes an "average student" with those differences primarily being a function of where in the United States a school district is located, yet school enrollment trends can be predicted by monitoring birth rates and migration trends. A custom report or presentation for your state or district can be obtained from Arfstrom Consulting.
Make up of the Class of 2014 - As the class of 2014 matriculates to two- or four-year colleges or enters the military or workforce this national graduating class share similar demographic characteristics. The U.S. Census Bureau performs an annual Current Population Survey (CPS) every October of approximately 72,000 sample households and offers a snapshot of the “average” school, community and family. [1]
Based on federal documentation when the "average" student in the class of 2014 was 3 and 4 years old roughly 40% of them enrolled in some form of nursery school. Whereas by age of 5, about 4 million (or 75% of eligible kids) were in public Kindergarten with a majority of those students attending all-day classes. Per pupil expenditures have increased significantly from the time they were born in 1997, when the average combined local, state and federal dollars was a little less than $6,000 per pupil, to $10,610 by their graduation day, but they did see a decrease in overall funds in the last two years of their schooling [2]. More students graduated on time in 2014 that in previous years. The class of 2014 also had with the lowest rate of drop outs (7%) ever measured and, coincidentally, the same percentage of their classmates who were foreign born. During their K-12 experience, more students than ever before attended or graduated from a charter school. They may have been home schooled at some point, likely partook in some form of an online course, and were slightly less likely to have attended or graduated from a private school than previous graduating classes [3].
Natural Birth Rate - Back in 1997, savvy school leaders took note that there were far fewer births that year (3,880,894) then the decade prior to it and made faculty and facility adjustments accordingly. That year, for every 1,000 women between the ages of 15-44, the birth rate was 14.5, the lowest the country had experienced and it continues to decline)[4]. One of the main reasons for the low birth rate that year was the number of women of child bearing years was at an all-time low because decades earlier the smallest generation in current history was born (between 1966-76) after the Boomers skyrocketing birth rates.
Despite the low birth rate in 1997, hospitals that year reported a slight uptick in babies who were born preterm, a twin or triplet, by Cesarean section with low birth weight. Infants born preterm and with a lower than average weight tended to need more medical services and federally mandated special education services [see 4]. These clues offered a glimmer of insight on how school and community leaders can plan and prepare for the incoming class of youngsters five years after they are born prior entering Kindergarten. Like the clichéd snake that ate a mouse, birth rates from year to year are well documented - with foreseeable impacts on education.
Immigration - The other primary source (and predictor) of student populations is migration. Astute school leaders knew as far back as 1991 when there was an all-time record high of 1,827,167 legal immigrants admitted into the U.S. and they adjusted classes accordingly. But they may not have projected what would happen six years later when that number declined precipitously. In 1997, the number of legal immigrants shrank to 798,378, with 36% coming from Mexico, Central America or the Caribbean; 35% from Asia; 16% Europe including the former Soviet Union; 7% from South America; and 6% from Africa [5]. Although new immigrants are not typically infants or even primary school-aged children, school leaders can account for anticipated student gains by gauging the number of new immigrants in their communities, in particular unaccompanied high school age students and women of childbearing years and from which country they arrived.
Also in 1997, the second highest number of persons in U.S. history were sworn in as naturalized citizen (598,225) with the previous year being the highest ever with 1,004,689 new citizens. The median number of years a person has been in the U.S. waiting for naturalization is eight years. Coupled with the fact that 51% of naturalized citizens were female, and the median age was 39, more than likely they already had children in or entering the school system [see 5].
While it is almost impossible to find accurate numbers for undocumented immigrants, the Justice Department estimated 275,000 illegal immigrants entered the U.S. in 1997. Undocumented immigration into the U.S. decreased overall for the previous decade with an estimate between 4.6 and 5.4 million living in the U.S. that year, roughly half of whom were women and many of those were of childbearing years. In 1997, approximately 54% of all undocumented immigrants were from Mexico, with eight of the top 20 sending countries speaking Spanish as their first language. Interestingly, four of the top 20 sending counties had English as their native language [again 5]. As noted above, immigration trends vary in different parts of the country. However, estimates can be made on the impact of migration for future student enrollments for most locations in the United States.
So with our class of 2014 exiting the K-12 school system, school and community leaders can already start to prepare for the class of 2032, those children born in 2014. How will that cohort compare to this one? See the companion white paper titled The Class of 2032.
School and Community Leaders: A version of this paper can be personalized for your district. In person or virtual presentations can also be arranged. Contact Arfstrom Consulting for pricing and availability.
Media and publisher requests encouraged for K-12 demographic and forecasting topics.
Sources:
[1] School Enrollment in the United States: 2011, Population Characteristics. U.S. Census Bureau (most recent year available). http://www.census.gov/prod/2013pubs/p20-571.pdf
[2] Public Education Finance: 2012. U.S. Census Bureau (most recent year available). http://www2.census.gov/govs/school/12f33pub.pdf
[3] School Enrollment in the United States: 2011, Population Characteristics. U.S. Census Bureau (most recent year available). http://www.census.gov/prod/2013pubs/p20-571.pdf
[4] National Vital Statistics Reports, Birth: Final Data for 1997. Center for Disease Control and Prevention http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr47/nvs47_18.pdf
[5] Statistical Yearbook of the Immigration and Naturalization Service, 1997. U.S. Justice Department, https://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/yearbook/1997YB.pdf
To adequately prepare for a graduating high school class, such as that of 2014, school leaders can take the lessons from this White Paper as they prepare for the next cohort of students starting with the current birth year. This short paper draws attention to the make up of an “average” cohort of students made up of birth rates and migration (legal, undocumented and transient) at the national level. There are vast differences in what constitutes an "average student" with those differences primarily being a function of where in the United States a school district is located, yet school enrollment trends can be predicted by monitoring birth rates and migration trends. A custom report or presentation for your state or district can be obtained from Arfstrom Consulting.
Make up of the Class of 2014 - As the class of 2014 matriculates to two- or four-year colleges or enters the military or workforce this national graduating class share similar demographic characteristics. The U.S. Census Bureau performs an annual Current Population Survey (CPS) every October of approximately 72,000 sample households and offers a snapshot of the “average” school, community and family. [1]
Based on federal documentation when the "average" student in the class of 2014 was 3 and 4 years old roughly 40% of them enrolled in some form of nursery school. Whereas by age of 5, about 4 million (or 75% of eligible kids) were in public Kindergarten with a majority of those students attending all-day classes. Per pupil expenditures have increased significantly from the time they were born in 1997, when the average combined local, state and federal dollars was a little less than $6,000 per pupil, to $10,610 by their graduation day, but they did see a decrease in overall funds in the last two years of their schooling [2]. More students graduated on time in 2014 that in previous years. The class of 2014 also had with the lowest rate of drop outs (7%) ever measured and, coincidentally, the same percentage of their classmates who were foreign born. During their K-12 experience, more students than ever before attended or graduated from a charter school. They may have been home schooled at some point, likely partook in some form of an online course, and were slightly less likely to have attended or graduated from a private school than previous graduating classes [3].
Natural Birth Rate - Back in 1997, savvy school leaders took note that there were far fewer births that year (3,880,894) then the decade prior to it and made faculty and facility adjustments accordingly. That year, for every 1,000 women between the ages of 15-44, the birth rate was 14.5, the lowest the country had experienced and it continues to decline)[4]. One of the main reasons for the low birth rate that year was the number of women of child bearing years was at an all-time low because decades earlier the smallest generation in current history was born (between 1966-76) after the Boomers skyrocketing birth rates.
Despite the low birth rate in 1997, hospitals that year reported a slight uptick in babies who were born preterm, a twin or triplet, by Cesarean section with low birth weight. Infants born preterm and with a lower than average weight tended to need more medical services and federally mandated special education services [see 4]. These clues offered a glimmer of insight on how school and community leaders can plan and prepare for the incoming class of youngsters five years after they are born prior entering Kindergarten. Like the clichéd snake that ate a mouse, birth rates from year to year are well documented - with foreseeable impacts on education.
Immigration - The other primary source (and predictor) of student populations is migration. Astute school leaders knew as far back as 1991 when there was an all-time record high of 1,827,167 legal immigrants admitted into the U.S. and they adjusted classes accordingly. But they may not have projected what would happen six years later when that number declined precipitously. In 1997, the number of legal immigrants shrank to 798,378, with 36% coming from Mexico, Central America or the Caribbean; 35% from Asia; 16% Europe including the former Soviet Union; 7% from South America; and 6% from Africa [5]. Although new immigrants are not typically infants or even primary school-aged children, school leaders can account for anticipated student gains by gauging the number of new immigrants in their communities, in particular unaccompanied high school age students and women of childbearing years and from which country they arrived.
Also in 1997, the second highest number of persons in U.S. history were sworn in as naturalized citizen (598,225) with the previous year being the highest ever with 1,004,689 new citizens. The median number of years a person has been in the U.S. waiting for naturalization is eight years. Coupled with the fact that 51% of naturalized citizens were female, and the median age was 39, more than likely they already had children in or entering the school system [see 5].
While it is almost impossible to find accurate numbers for undocumented immigrants, the Justice Department estimated 275,000 illegal immigrants entered the U.S. in 1997. Undocumented immigration into the U.S. decreased overall for the previous decade with an estimate between 4.6 and 5.4 million living in the U.S. that year, roughly half of whom were women and many of those were of childbearing years. In 1997, approximately 54% of all undocumented immigrants were from Mexico, with eight of the top 20 sending countries speaking Spanish as their first language. Interestingly, four of the top 20 sending counties had English as their native language [again 5]. As noted above, immigration trends vary in different parts of the country. However, estimates can be made on the impact of migration for future student enrollments for most locations in the United States.
So with our class of 2014 exiting the K-12 school system, school and community leaders can already start to prepare for the class of 2032, those children born in 2014. How will that cohort compare to this one? See the companion white paper titled The Class of 2032.
School and Community Leaders: A version of this paper can be personalized for your district. In person or virtual presentations can also be arranged. Contact Arfstrom Consulting for pricing and availability.
Media and publisher requests encouraged for K-12 demographic and forecasting topics.
Sources:
[1] School Enrollment in the United States: 2011, Population Characteristics. U.S. Census Bureau (most recent year available). http://www.census.gov/prod/2013pubs/p20-571.pdf
[2] Public Education Finance: 2012. U.S. Census Bureau (most recent year available). http://www2.census.gov/govs/school/12f33pub.pdf
[3] School Enrollment in the United States: 2011, Population Characteristics. U.S. Census Bureau (most recent year available). http://www.census.gov/prod/2013pubs/p20-571.pdf
[4] National Vital Statistics Reports, Birth: Final Data for 1997. Center for Disease Control and Prevention http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr47/nvs47_18.pdf
[5] Statistical Yearbook of the Immigration and Naturalization Service, 1997. U.S. Justice Department, https://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/yearbook/1997YB.pdf
